Bitcoin’s price surged to its highest level in two weeks on Monday, fueled by a U.S.-Iran ceasefire that eased one of the market’s most persistent macroeconomic concerns. This development sent crypto-related stocks soaring ahead of what traders see as the week’s main event: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s inaugural FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin traded around $67,000, marking a 4% gain in 24 hours, following Iran’s confirmation of a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The cryptocurrency broke through the $64,000 resistance level during low-liquidity weekend trading before stabilizing as New York markets opened on Monday.
However, Nansen Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard advises against overinterpreting the headline-driven move.
“The ceasefire news pushed Bitcoin to $66,000 during thin weekend trading, but traders who have been burned twice already this year aren’t fully reinvesting yet,” he told Bitcoin Magazine. “The April agreement fell apart, and U.S. military strikes ended a second truce on June 9, with Bitcoin surrendering all its gains both times. The market views June 19 in Switzerland as the real turning point, not Sunday’s headlines.”
Strategy resumes Bitcoin purchases
Strategy (MSTR) filed a fresh 8-K disclosure on Monday revealing it had acquired 1,587 BTC for approximately $100 million between June 8 and June 14, financed through its at-the-market equity offering program. This brings its total Bitcoin holdings to 846,842 BTC.
Shares jumped over 9% on the announcement, with intraday trading volume reaching 16.84 million shares.
Strive (ASST), the Bitcoin treasury company led by Vivek Ramaswamy, climbed nearly 16% to $17.50 — extending its recovery from a three-month low of $9.00 in early April. Other crypto-related stocks including Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle all rose more than 5%.
The rally in crypto equities mirrors what Austin Federa, co-founder of DoubleZero, has witnessed firsthand.
“Institutions are enthusiastic about crypto,” Federa said. “I’ve never seen this much excitement from bankers and corporate executives. You wouldn’t realize we’re in a bear market based on their conversations.”
The debate over Bitcoin’s price structure
Despite the positive price action, Bitfinex analysts warn against confusing relief with genuine demand. “What we’re seeing is seller exhaustion coinciding with a macroeconomic reprieve — a fundamentally different scenario from authentic buying interest,” the firm’s analyst team told Bitcoin Magazine. “The subsequent price behavior in each case is very different, which leads us to believe that despite the short-term bounce, bulls face considerable obstacles before a sustained uptrend can develop.”
Bitfinex outlined the conditions needed for lasting buying support: “We believe a temporary bottom has formed, supported by multiple factors including correlated assets trending higher, large liquidations triggering a reset in funding and open interest, and spot seller exhaustion combined with the current macro relief. However, the two major institutional buyer groups — ETFs and Treasury/DAT companies — need to turn net positive for Bitcoin to establish sustained spot demand.”
ETF data presents a mixed picture. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced five straight weeks of net outflows totaling nearly $1.8 billion before June 12 broke the streak with $85.85 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $57.69 million and Fidelity’s FBTC.
A single positive session doesn’t confirm a Bitcoin price reversal, but it represents the first indication that institutional buyers may be starting to return.
The Fed looms as the next catalyst
The geopolitical relief trade is real, but both Sondergaard and Bitfinex look beyond it to the FOMC meeting as the market’s defining event this week. June 16–17 marks Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair. With inflation at 3.8% in April, rate cuts are off the table, and some officials have started discussing potential rate hikes later this year.
The Fed is widely expected to maintain rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but the updated dot plot and Warsh’s first press conference will signal the Committee’s direction — and consequently, Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Bitfinex characterized the Iran deal as a transmission mechanism rather than a standalone catalyst: “If the truce holds, oil prices retreat, the energy-driven component of inflation diminishes, real yields and inflation breakevens ease, and the dollar’s safe-haven appeal fades. That same chain represents the clearest near-term tailwind for both gold and Bitcoin.”
But the firm emphasized timing as the critical factor: “The agreement comes the day before the FOMC meets — the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. A credible supply normalization gives the Committee justification to treat May’s spike as temporary and hold steady, rather than tighten in response to a headline figure above target.”
For crypto optimists, the bullish scenario requires the ceasefire to hold, Warsh to deliver a neutral-to-dovish signal, and ETF inflows to string together multiple consecutive positive sessions. None of these outcomes are certain.
This is precisely why Bitcoin’s price remains, as Bitfinex described it, “trapped in the consolidation zone between these two critical levels, where it must either establish a durable support base or face a potential breakdown into a deeper decline.”
