Last week, Nvidia’s stock soared to a new record high, surpassing $236 and bringing its market value close to $5.7 trillion. The shares jumped 3.7% in one day and have been on a steady upward run, signaling growing investor optimism as the company approaches its earnings report.
The outlook for Nvidia’s stock is shaped by two opposing factors: surging worldwide demand for AI technology, especially from China, and increasing geopolitical tensions along with concerns about the stock’s high valuation.
With NVDA holding above important technical benchmarks but showing signs of being overbought in the short term, the stock’s next direction will likely be determined by the company’s earnings outlook and any updates on regulatory matters.
China Demand Reignites AI Momentum
A key factor behind Nvidia’s recent surge is the renewed appetite for AI chips from China.
Leading tech companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com are reportedly gearing up to buy Nvidia’s H200 processors, subject to regulatory clearance.
Despite ongoing US export restrictions and delays in some Chinese approvals, investors seem to be anticipating a partial recovery in demand.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to China as part of a US delegation hints at continued efforts to open up that market.
Even as China-related revenue faces headwinds from export controls, Nvidia continues to ride the wave of booming global investment in AI infrastructure. The need for high-performance GPUs used in training AI models, running inference workloads, and deploying AI servers remains fundamentally robust.
The broader semiconductor industry has rallied in tandem with Nvidia, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hitting all-time highs.
So far this year, NVDA has climbed more than 25%, and over the past 12 months, the stock has surged over 70%, far outpacing major market indices.
Technical Outlook: $210 Support Remains Critical
From a chart perspective, Nvidia is still in a healthy uptrend. The stock sits above its 20-day moving average around $210, its 50-day moving average near $193, and its 200-day moving average near $186. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $210.63 serves as immediate support.
That said, momentum indicators point to near-term fatigue. The RSI is hovering around 64–65, and the CCI has moved into overbought territory above 130.
The Stochastic RSI has flashed a short-term sell signal, suggesting a possible pullback even though the broader trend remains upward.
While MACD and ADX still back a bullish setup, the gap between oscillator readings and price action indicates that momentum may ease before the next push higher.
Over the coming days, NVDA is expected to trade in a range between $215 and $235. A decisive move above $235 would likely confirm renewed upward momentum, potentially driving the stock toward fresh highs.
On the other hand, a sustained drop below the $210–$215 support zone would weaken the short-term picture and could pave the way for a deeper correction.
Nvidia Price Prediction for 2026
Based on the latest CoinCodex Nvidia price forecast, NVDA could see some short-term consolidation before possibly resuming its climb later in 2026.
For May 2026, estimates put the stock in a range of $204 to $224, suggesting limited upside in the near term.
June and July projections point to modest pullbacks, with average prices around $195–$201. This signals a potential cooling-off period after the recent rally.
However, the outlook becomes more positive in the second half of the year. September and October forecasts show a recovery toward the $220 range, while November targets stretch toward $260. December projections suggest potential peaks near $280, representing substantial upside if bullish momentum picks up again.
While these forecasts are model-driven and depend on broader market conditions, they indicate that a period of consolidation could set the stage for another advance if AI-driven demand stays strong.
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