In brief
- Bitcoin dropped 17% from just below $74,000 on Monday to an intraday low of $61,556 on Thursday, sparking $4.47 billion in total crypto liquidations during the period.
- Data from derivatives and options markets reveal subdued demand and a rise in bets aimed at protecting against further downside.
- Analysts anticipate the possibility of another decline into the $50,000 range, with a market bottom potentially forming within three to six months.
Bitcoin kept falling on Thursday, deepening losses across the broader crypto market with no obvious signs of stabilization.
The top cryptocurrency has shed about 17% over four days, sliding from nearly $74,000 on Monday to Thursday’s intraday low of $61,556, per CoinGecko data.
In less than four days, total crypto market liquidations reached $4.47 billion, with long positions accounting for $3.82 billion—roughly 93% of all wiped-out trades. At the time of writing, BTC is still in the red, trading near $63,680, down 5.1% for the day.
Derivatives and options data offer fresh perspective on Bitcoin’s recent slide, beyond the persistent ETF outflows, deteriorating geopolitical climate, and their ripple effects previously covered by Decrypt.
The Coinbase premium has been negative since late April and has widened since May 26, according to CoinGlass data. This metric, which tracks the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase versus Binance, has stayed negative for most of 2026, with only brief positive spikes in March and April. A prolonged negative premium points to tepid U.S. institutional demand.
Bitcoin’s 30-day 25-delta skew has plunged from -4.2 to -9.4, based on Deribit data, signaling that options traders are still paying premiums for downside protection via bearish bets or put options.
Since June, Bitcoin’s open interest has declined from 282,000 BTC to 265,000 BTC, per Velo data, while both spot and perpetual cumulative volume delta—the difference between market buying and selling pressure—have plummeted. This combination implies that new short positions have accumulated as Bitcoin kept dropping.
On a more positive note, spot orderbook depth at 5% and 10% levels shows investors have continued to buy the dips despite the selloff.
How low can Bitcoin go?
The main catalyst behind the selloff remains geopolitical risk, Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, told Decrypt. “Renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran heightened risk aversion across markets and even raised the possibility of potential rate hikes,” he said. “U.S. equities keep hitting new all-time highs, drawing speculative capital toward AI stocks and away from crypto.”
Otychenko observed that just before the decline accelerated, Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis dipped below the true mean price—a crossover that historically occurred during the mid-stages of prior bear markets. “The average recent buyer is now underwater compared to a long-term valuation benchmark,” he explained. “Historically, this sets off a self-reinforcing cycle where losses trigger further selling pressure.”
Several on-chain models suggest Bitcoin could still dip below $60,000, according to Otychenko. He also highlighted that long-term holder supply hit a new all-time high this week—a pattern that often emerges during bear markets. “If historical trends hold, a bottom could materialize within the next three to six months.”
Should Bitcoin breach $60,000, Otychenko pointed to the realized price near $54,000 as the next key reference level. “Given the lower volatility in this cycle, the eventual bottom could form much closer to that level than in past cycles.”
Bitcoin is experiencing a natural “tired phase” of the cycle, Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, told Decrypt. With Bitcoin hovering near its yearly lows just above $60,000, Singh said he wouldn’t be surprised to see another drop into the $50,000s. “That could be where the market finds a ‘true bottom,’ shakes out weak hands, and starts laying the groundwork for a stronger rally later in the year.”
On prediction market Myriad, ownedby Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, optimism has dropped sharply, with users now assigning a 70% probability that Bitcoin’s next significant move will push it down to $55,000 instead of up to $84,000.
Standard Chartered’s contrarian view
Standard Chartered’s head of crypto research, Geoffrey Kendrick, described Bitcoin’s recent sell-off as a possible buying opportunity in a research note shared with Decrypt. While Kendrick acknowledged that Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC acted as a trigger, he anticipates the company will repurchase many times more than it sold.
“I expect the buying after the selling will be much stronger—either 10 times (+320 BTC) or even 100 times (+3,200 BTC),” he said. “If I’m right… I’d take that as an early signal that the bottom has already been reached.”
Kendrick also pointed out that ETF holdings have stayed “structurally resilient,” declining only from 682,000 BTC to 674,000 BTC since February—a much smaller drop than he had feared. “When we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100,000 and ETH at $4,000, we’ll recognize this as the buying opportunity we all hoped for.”
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