A $1.75 trillion IPO is poised to reshape which space stocks deserve attention this summer. SpaceX is approaching the largest initial public offering in history. The public S-1 filing is expected in late May, with the actual listing targeted for late June or early July.
When SpaceX reveals actual launch costs and Starlink financials, the entire sector will be reevaluated using the same measuring stick. Three companies stand out as the most straightforward beneficiaries.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB)
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) is the nearest publicly traded counterpart to SpaceX, manufacturing launch vehicles, spacecraft, and components all in-house. The SpaceX IPO is highly relevant here.
The S-1 is the SEC filing required before a company can go public. SpaceX submitted its confidential version on April 1, with the public release anticipated in late May.
Once it becomes available, SpaceX’s launch revenue, operating costs, and Starlink profit margins will be visible to everyone for the first time. RKLB is the only publicly traded company engaged in comparable work. When investors examine SpaceX’s actual figures, RKLB will be revalued in relation to them.
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The underlying business metrics look solid. First-quarter revenue reached $200.3 million (+63.5% year-over-year), the order backlog climbed to $2.2 billion, and available liquidity surpassed $2 billion.
Still, the stock dropped 7.17% to $78.58, as investors locking in gains after a 240% yearly rally overshadowed an otherwise strong Q2 outlook.
RKLB is trading within an ascending channel that has remained intact since late November. The most recent high was turned away at $94.40 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level). The price is currently tracking close to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $78.96.
EMAs give greater weight to more recent prices, while the 50-day EMA rests at $75.52.
The last decisive break below the 20-day EMA on March 26 triggered a 19.31% decline. A similar breakdown now exposes $70.71, followed by $62.45 (the 200-day EMA), and then $56.08 (the channel’s lower boundary).
Options activity tells a different story. The volume put-call ratio stands at 0.53 compared to 0.73 at the last -$0.07 earnings print. Open interest remains at 0.77. Traders are purchasing calls heading into the IPO window despite the earnings miss.
A recovery above $87.08 clears the path toward $94.40 and the breakout zone beyond $104.81.
Among space stocks worth monitoring, RKLB offers the most straightforward setup heading into the SpaceX listing.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS)
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is building the only U.S. satellite network capable of connecting directly to unmodified smartphones. AT&T, Verizon, and FirstNet serve as anchor partners.
This positioning aligns with the segment of SpaceX that remains impossible to value today: Starlink direct-to-cell. When SpaceX’s S-1 discloses Starlink’s subscriber figures and revenue per user, the market will have its first real benchmark for ASTS.
BlueBird 7, one of ASTS’s direct-to-cell satellites, failed to achieve orbit on April 20. That setback puts the year-end target of 45 satellites in jeopardy. ASTS has scheduled a mid-June Falcon 9 launch for BlueBird 8 through 10, which is set to coincide with the SpaceX roadshow week.
ASTS closed at $65.35 on May 7, down 7.54%, with earnings scheduled for Monday after the market closes.
ASTS has declined 51.27% from its February 2 peak of $129.78. The current support level is $63.25. Above the price, the 200-day EMA sits at $73.53, the 20-day at $76.20, and the 50/100-day cluster is positioned at $82.40–$82.50.
Two bearish crossover signals are approaching. The 50-day EMA is converging toward the 100-day, and the 20-day EMA is nearing the 200-day. A break below $63.25 opens the door to $58.40, then $45.95.
Options activity leans bullish. The volume put-call ratio has dropped from 0.62 to 0.45 since early April, while open interest has declined from 0.49 to 0.42. With earnings due Monday and implied volatility at 112.55%, traders are positioning for a positive surprise.
For ASTS to reverse the downtrend, it needs to reclaim $68.17, $81.90, and $82.40. A move above $104.12 would negate the bearish outlook entirely. Among space stocks to watch, ASTS represents the higher-risk play heading into the SpaceX listing.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR)
Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) designs and builds lunar landers and operates NASA’s Near Space Network, participating in the Artemis program.
with SpaceX.
The SpaceX IPO angle here is profitability. LUNR is the only listed pure-play stock guiding to positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026. When SpaceX’s S-1 reveals Starlink’s profit economics, the market hunts for the next stock with that profile.
LUNR closed at $24.11 on May 7, down 8.43%. The company guides 2026 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion, almost 5x FY25, with positive adjusted EBITDA. Q1 results land on May 14.
LUNR has held a rising channel since mid-November. A breakout attempt failed on April 22, and the price has weakened since. The recent pullback pushed LUNR below the 20-day EMA at $24.92 on May 7.
The critical floor is $22.71, and the 50-day EMA is at $22.61, just below. Breaking those levels opens deeper losses. The first upside hurdle is $32.21 (0.618 Fibonacci). A clean break sets up a channel breakout.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) measures institutional inflows and outflows. CMF sits at -0.01, just below the zero line. April 1 set the precedent. CMF crossed zero alongside a 20-day EMA reclaim, and LUNR rallied 71.15% in days.
Earnings on May 14 are the trigger. A CMF cross with a 20-day EMA reclaim can replay April 1 into the SpaceX listing. Among space stocks to watch, LUNR offers the cleanest profitability story.
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