Bitcoin , the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has climbed from around $63,000 to above $80,000 over the last three months, per CoinDesk data. And the indicators that professional traders monitor are now all aligned toward a common target: $85,000.
This upward move isn’t just about the price tag — it’s about the underlying forces driving it.
On-chain dynamics
Further upside appears probable because bitcoin has moved past two critical thresholds that on-chain analysts regard as among the most significant in the market: the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79,100.
Here’s what makes these figures important. The True Market Mean represents the average price that active bitcoin investors paid for the coins they currently hold. Unlike metrics that account for every bitcoin ever mined — including those that have been dormant for years or are permanently lost — this one focuses on coins that are actively being traded between participants.
This gives a more accurate picture of the price level that truly matters to those currently engaged in the market. When bitcoin trades above this level, the majority of active investors are sitting in profit; when it drops below, many are at a loss. That’s why analysts rely on it to assess market sentiment, identify periods of stress or excitement, and pinpoint potential areas where prices might revert to the mean.
As for the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, it reflects the average purchase price for those who acquired their coins within the last six months. Once again, this metric speaks to what traders care about, not long-term holders who aren’t moving their coins.
So when the spot price moves above both of these benchmarks, it’s widely interpreted as a bullish signal.
“If the price can hold above these two levels over the next week, the deep value regime that lasted from early February 2026 until now would be one of the briefest episodes of its kind in Bitcoin’s market history,” Glassnode analysts noted in a recent report.
“The focus now turns to the next major resistance level at the Active Realized Price near $85,200, which tracks the cost basis of all non-dormant supply and represents the next structural hurdle the market needs to overcome,” they added.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $80,800, comfortably above both the True Market Mean and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
Futures market flows
A quiet but meaningful shift is taking place in the futures market that could provide additional fuel for bitcoin’s advance.
The clue lies in funding rates — the small, periodic payments traders make to maintain leveraged futures positions. For much of the past three months, these rates were negative, signaling unusually strong demand to bet against bitcoin in the futures market.
Much of that activity was likely driven by hedge funds and institutional traders executing a well-known arbitrage strategy: purchasing bitcoin or spot bitcoin ETFs while simultaneously shorting futures contracts. This approach created persistent selling pressure in the futures market even as bitcoin’s price climbed.
Now, funding rates have returned to neutral or slightly positive territory. This shift suggests that many of those short positions have already been unwound, eliminating a significant source of downward pressure.
It also opens the door to a potential short squeeze. If bitcoin keeps rising, traders still holding bearish bets may be compelled to buy back futures contracts to close out their positions, which can further accelerate the upward move.
“The move toward neutral doesn’t rule out the carry trade; it simply shows that shorts paying for the trade are no longer present in large numbers. Either funding turns negative again as new ETF inflows recreate the trade, or the squeeze still has room to run,” Bitfinex analysts at the OG exchange explained, pointing to the potential for additional gains.
Options dynamics
The third bullish signal comes from the options market, where traders use contracts to position for or hedge against price movements. Call options offer bullish exposure if bitcoin rises, while put options serve as protection against downside risk.
Current options positioning is configured in a way that could magnify the ongoing upward move.
Market makers — the firms responsible for providing liquidity — are carrying what’s known as “short gamma” exposure around the $82,000 mark, with approximately $2 billion clustered near current price levels, according to Glassnode.
Short gamma is significant because it compels these dealers to hedge in the direction of the prevailing trend — which is currently bullish — in order to maintain a balanced book.
In practical terms, this means that as bitcoin pushes higher, the hedging activity by dealers can generate additional buying pressure, potentially speeding up the rally toward $85,000. Market makers earn their keep by providing liquidity, so they aim to stay directionally neutral rather than taking speculative bets.
However, this dynamic works in both directions. If the market reverses lower, these same dealers would likely need to hedge the other way, selling into the decline, which could intensify the downward pressure.
“Short gamma means dealers are set up in a way that forces them to hedge along with the move — buying as the price goes up and selling as it drops. This creates a feedback loop that can accelerate price action, helping to explain the recent push toward $83K,” Glassnode noted.
Caveat
None of these factors operate in isolation. Bitcoin still moves in close correlation with U.S. tech stocks, so if equities suddenly shift to a risk-off stance, it could quickly dampen the momentum or even bring the trend to a halt.
