# Veteran Trader Shifts Stance: Bitcoin Bear Market May Have Already Ended, Price Targets Skyrocket
A prominent veteran trader has reversed his previous stance, suggesting that Bitcoin’s bear market likely concluded before his initial projection. The trader, known for his technical analysis and long-term market models, originally pinpointed a specific date for a market bottom but now believes the digital asset has already moved past that point, entering a fresh bullish phase.
Back in July, the trader cautioned that Bitcoin could plummet into the high-$40,000 range. At that time, the cryptocurrency was hovering near $64,000 before eventually surging to nearly $85,000. However, the asset retreated significantly, dipping to around $58,000 in late June. Observing the price action with the benefit of hindsight, this significant downturn likely represented the bottom of the current cycle. Despite this, the trader isn’t fully ruling out a sudden downward spike first. He notes that the market could see a temporary pullback toward the $65,000 or $66,000 range in early October—a move he views as an opportunity to shake out inexperienced traders who rushed in during the recent rally.
Beyond the immediate market dynamics, the trader has significantly raised his long-term expectations. He projects that Bitcoin could reach a peak between $300,000 and $600,000 by late 2029, up from his previous estimate of $250,000 to $300,000. While he doesn’t dismiss the possibility of a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030, he emphasizes that such a milestone isn’t required for his strategy to succeed. He mentions he has yet to deploy all his designated capital and would be satisfied capturing 70% of the projected rally over the coming years.
### Methodology and Market Analysis
When analyzing price movements, the trader warns against getting caught up in headline-driven narratives, such as regulatory developments or new acts. He advocates for letting price action be the primary guide, arguing that market explanations are often partially incorrect. His forecasting model places the halving event roughly midway through the duration between the bear market low and the subsequent peak. He anticipates that price gains will accelerate significantly toward the end of the cycle, with the final few months potentially contributing around 30% of the total increase. For now, identifying the next low-risk entry point remains his priority over pinpointing exact year-end milestones.
### Altcoin Perspective and Portfolio Allocation
The veteran trader also shared his thoughts on alternative cryptocurrencies. He expresses skepticism toward assets like XRP, arguing that transactional utility and banking partnerships do not automatically translate to investment value. Comparing it to traditional fiat currencies, he notes that just because a token is useful for payments doesn’t mean its utility will drive its price upward. In contrast, he shows more favor toward Ethereum and Solana, suggesting they can hold a place in a diversified crypto portfolio alongside Bitcoin. He strongly advises against chasing newly launched tokens or “fast horses,” warning investors not to be conned into the latest trend.
For financially secure individuals, he suggests a maximum crypto allocation of 10% of their overall portfolio, with Bitcoin taking the largest share of that allocation.
### Conclusion
The shift in sentiment from this seasoned trader highlights a potential inflection point for the cryptocurrency market. While his exact timing may have been off, his revised outlook suggests a new bullish chapter for Bitcoin is already underway. By prioritizing risk management over narrative chasing and focusing on long-term cycle patterns, his strategy serves as a reminder that successful trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Investors should remain vigilant for pullbacks that offer strategic entry points while keeping an eye on the broader historical trends that shape market cycles.
### Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
**Q1: Did the veteran trader originally predict a specific date for the end of the bear market?**
Yes, he initially called for October 4 as the end of the bear market. However, the market’s recovery appears to have preceded his forecast, leading him to reconsider his timeline and acknowledge that a new bullish phase may have already started.
**Q2: What are the revised long-term price targets for Bitcoin?**
He has raised his projection for Bitcoin’s next peak to a range of $300,000 to $600,000 by late 2029, up from his previous estimate of $250,000 to $300,000.
**Q3: Does the trader believe a $1 million Bitcoin is likely?**
He acknowledges that a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 is not impossible, but he notes that achieving this target is not necessary for his investment strategy to be successful.
**Q4: How does the trader view alternative cryptocurrencies like XRP?**
He is dismissive of many altcoins, arguing that transactional usefulness and business partnerships do not guarantee investment value. He prefers Ethereum and Solana over newer or purely utility-focused tokens.
**Q5: What portfolio allocation does the trader recommend?**
For financially secure individuals, he suggests a maximum crypto allocation of 10% of their portfolio, with Bitcoin making up the largest portion of that allocation.
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