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I’ve made no secret of my approach to stacking Bitcoin aggressively at today’s price levels. Now, I’m turning my attention more seriously toward Strategy as well. The same cluster of bullish signals that identified Bitcoin as a compelling buy is now showing up on MSTR — and in certain respects, the indicators are even more stretched.
This week at a glance:
- The RSI has only dipped to lower levels a few times since Strategy embraced a Bitcoin-first treasury policy.
- The Mayer Multiple for MSTR has just slipped into historically low percentile territory.
- The BTC-to-MSTR ratio is nearing a zone that has historically kicked off extended periods of MSTR outperforming Bitcoin.
- At the prior Bitcoin all-time high, assuming a 1x net asset value premium, MSTR shares would be valued at well above $300.
Discount
Strategy currently holds roughly 845,000 BTC, with an average cost basis in the mid-$70,000 range. That means, at today’s Bitcoin price, the company is carrying a substantial unrealized loss on its Bitcoin position.
Figure 1: Strategy’s Average BTC Cost Basis and other key metrics.
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This has aligned with the NAV falling even further below the 1.00x threshold, with MSTR’s market capitalization now sitting roughly 18% beneath the dollar value of its Bitcoin treasury. Put simply, purchasing MSTR at today’s price is like getting $1 worth of Bitcoin for just $0.82.
Support
The 200-week moving average tends to act as a meaningful floor for assets — particularly those with a long-term upward bias. Strategy’s share price is currently hovering right at this level, which has historically served as a springboard for significant accumulation phases.
Figure 2: Strategy’s share price tests the 200-week moving average.
A firm hold and recovery above this level, paired with any upward move in Bitcoin, has historically laid the groundwork for a notable MSTR rebound. The level is currently being put to the test. Whether it holds will be one of the most important signals to monitor in the weeks ahead.
RSI
Since Strategy adopted a Bitcoin standard, the RSI for MSTR has only fallen to lower levels on a small number of prior occasions — both during previous Bitcoin bear market cycle lows, when the share price was trading in the low teens. The current reading hasn’t quite reached those extremes, but it’s getting close, and the trajectory continues to point downward.
Figure 3: MSTR’s RSI has fallen below 25. In the past, readings this low have typically been followed by price gains.
The Mayer Multiple — which is simply the ratio of MSTR’s closing price to its 200-day moving average — recently hit a level where 99.2% of all historical readings were higher. This represents an extraordinarily extreme degree of underperformance compared to its own moving average, and it has occurred at roughly the same time as the RSI signal. That means two separate momentum indicators are simultaneously registering readings that have only appeared at the most significant cycle bottoms in MSTR’s history.
MSTR Or BTC?
The ratio between Bitcoin’s price and MSTR’s share price is one of the more reliable ways to determine whether it’s better to hold Bitcoin directly or rotate into the higher-beta proxy. When the ratio sits in the green upper zone, MSTR has historically been poised to outperform. When it falls into the red lower zone, Bitcoin tends to take the lead.
Figure 4: The BTC/MSTR ratio is approaching the green zone — a level that has historically preceded sustained periods of MSTR outperformance.
The ratio is now nearing a re-entry into that green zone. Prior occurrences of this were followed by extended stretches where MSTR significantly outperformed Bitcoin. The ratio is also forming lower highs on the long-term trend, suggesting the broader trajectory is shifting in favor of MSTR becoming increasingly attractive compared to holding Bitcoin directly.
Fair Value
At Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of roughly $126,000 — and assuming no additional accumulation is factored in — a 1x net asset value premium on MSTR would translate to a share price above $300. That represents approximately a 2.5x increase from current levels just to reach fair value based on Bitcoin’s last peak.
Figure 5: MSTR price projections based on different levels of BTC held and NAV premium assumptions.
Should MSTR keep building its position toward roughly 900,000 BTC, and the NAV premium inches up to 1.25x or 1.5x—still far below the 3x+ multiples seen in prior cycles—the outlook becomes genuinely compelling. Importantly, the share dilution that has historically funded bitcoin purchases is now primarily happening through STRC rather than issuing new common shares, which helps reduce that negative factor.
What’s the Situation Now?
I’ve been stacking bitcoin heavily. At this point, I’m also looking to pick up more MSTR. Strong momentum signals, support near the 200-week moving average, a built-in discount to the bitcoin holdings underneath, plus the BTC-to-MSTR ratio approaching historically attractive levels—all of it adds up to what looks like a straightforward short-term opportunity to grow my BTC holdings.
That said, MSTR is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin keeps having trouble, MSTR will feel it even more. I’m not viewing this as a substitute for direct Bitcoin exposure, but rather as a separate, asymmetric bet where the numbers point to a historically favorable risk-reward setup.
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Disclaimer: This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment.
