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We’re at a uncommon second in Microsoft historical past, when the corporate that outlined the trendy PC is supporting a single model of its flagship working system. Home windows 10 is formally unsupported as of October 2025. Home windows 11 now stands alone out there, with a billion energetic customers, in accordance with Microsoft’s most up-to-date quarterly earnings report. In October 2026, Home windows 11 will have fun its fifth anniversary — which is historically the midway level in Microsoft’s 10-year help lifecycle.
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That every one means that the subsequent model of Home windows — let’s name it Home windows 12 — will likely be right here earlier than you already know it, prepared or not. Actually, this week PCWorld, a dependable supply of expertise information, printed a startling report (translated from its German counterpart, PC-Welt) claiming that Home windows 12 could be arriving in 2026. On Reddit, a publish discussing the article went viral, gathering 18,000 upvotes and provoking almost 7,000 feedback.
Then, just a few hours later, government editor Brad Chacos posted an apology and a retraction: “This article … does not meet PCWorld’s standards and should not have been published.” (Full disclosure: I used to be as soon as managing editor of PC World, when it was a print journal. Having to jot down that form of retraction would have been my worst nightmare,)
Lengthy story brief: No, Home windows 12 is just not coming in 2026. Microsoft has already introduced that Home windows 11 will obtain its regular characteristic replace — model 26H2 — later this yr. Confusingly, there’s additionally a brand-new model 26H1 that can arrive within the subsequent few months, constructed for the brand new Qualcomm Snapdragon X2 processors. Earlier this yr, the top of the Home windows division, Pavan Davuluri, publicly apologized to indignant and pissed off Home windows 11 clients: “This year you will see us focus on addressing pain points we hear consistently from customers: improving system performance, reliability, and the overall experience of Windows.”
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However that does not imply Microsoft is not engaged on the subsequent era of Home windows. Final December, I put collectively this publish, providing my greatest guess as to what we’re more likely to see in that product — and when it is more likely to arrive.
Let me warn you: You are in all probability not going to love my predictions.
The whole lot previous is new once more
I’ve stated it earlier than, and I am going to say it once more: If you wish to know what’s coming subsequent from Microsoft, simply have a look at its previous failures.
Take a look at the primary launch of Edge, which was constructed on a closely modified model of the Web Explorer engine. It failed miserably, so Microsoft killed it and changed it with a browser constructed on the open-source Chromium codebase, whereas protecting the identify. It is now a core a part of Home windows 11 and is tolerated by net designers and finish customers in a method that its predecessors by no means might handle.
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Or how about Cortana? That was Microsoft’s try to construct a digital assistant to compete with Apple’s Siri. It launched with nice fanfare in 2014 and belly-flopped. It was unceremoniously deprecated in 2020. However Microsoft did not quit on the thought of a wise assistant, which now exists in a way more outstanding capability as Copilot. You will have heard of it.
Microsoft’s largest failure of all — one for the report books — was the Floor RT, a pill that was powered by an Arm processor. It ran Home windows RT, which supported an especially restricted choice of apps from the Home windows Retailer. Folks hated the {hardware} and the software program!
I remorse to tell you that I’m putting my bets on Microsoft reviving a number of the key concepts from that all-time failure.
The corporate has already tried twice, with out success. First was the introduction of the much-loathed Home windows 10 S in 2017. It was designed as a locked-down OS that would solely run apps from the Home windows Retailer and could not set up third-party apps or drivers delivered utilizing customary Home windows installers. It acquired a reputation change to Home windows 10 in S Mode and is all however deprecated on Home windows 11.
After which there’s the ill-fated Home windows 10X, which was introduced in October 2019, simply months earlier than the onset of the worldwide pandemic. Based on my erstwhile colleague Mary Jo Foley, Home windows 10X was designed “to provide some of the same benefits as Windows 10 in S Mode … such as reducing ‘Win Rot,’ better ‘Instant On,’ a reduced attack surface, and provision of more seamless updates.” Most intriguingly, it was going to run legacy Win32 apps in containers.
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Microsoft put Home windows 10X on a again burner in 2021 so it might focus on Home windows 11. However I simply need to consider that builders are nonetheless working feverishly to reintroduce these ideas within the subsequent model of Home windows.
None of what I’ve written right here is predicated on inside info. That is hypothesis on my half, however given my give attention to Microsoft’s monitor report over greater than three a long time, I am assured most of this needs to be a fairly protected guess.
You will want AI-optimized {hardware}
AI is just not going away. Microsoft is embedding its Copilot options in each nook, crevice, cranny, and Settings web page in Home windows 11. It is also anticipating folks to pay for the privilege — these information facilities are costly to construct, and so they rack up fairly severe electrical payments each month.
I count on that the subsequent model of Home windows would require a PC that meets Microsoft’s Copilot+ customary, which requires a devoted neural processing unit (NPU), with increased reminiscence and storage requirements as nicely.
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If these specs are enforced, the end result will likely be just like what occurred with Home windows 11’s {hardware} necessities, with numerous older machines incapable of upgrading past Home windows 11.
Arm-based techniques will likely be most well-liked for dwelling customers, I predict, with companies persevering with to stay with Intel and AMD (though which may change).
Your previous apps won’t work
There are various good causes to design an working system that can solely run apps from a trusted repository (together with its personal retailer). Apple appears to have executed job with that mannequin on iPhone and iPad, and you already know Microsoft would like to do the identical with Home windows. That may block the commonest sources of malware and reliability points. Sadly, it may also block the one app you completely must run.
Additionally: Here is why Home windows PCs are solely going to get extra annoying
The excellent news is that the Microsoft Retailer and the Winget repository now embrace an unlimited variety of apps. I have been utilizing a beautiful app referred to as UniGetUI (accessible within the Microsoft Retailer!), which wraps an easy-to-use command-line interface round Winget and the shop. After utilizing that app for a number of months, I’ve discovered solely a scattered few applications that require an old school installer. That is an enormous distinction from the previous Home windows Retailer days.
My prediction? The Dwelling model of Home windows 12 will solely let you use apps you get from a trusted supply. You will must improve to a Professional or Enterprise version if you wish to set up Win32 apps downloaded from an exterior supply, and people apps will run in sandboxed containers (and even in Microsoft’s cloud-based Home windows 365 PCs), to allow them to’t do any harm.
Do not get me improper: These strikes will likely be good for the Home windows ecosystem. However fans and traditionalists won’t be blissful about what they understand as a lack of freedom. And we all know from expertise how shortly a Microsoft product can get a nasty popularity based mostly on misconceptions and misunderstandings.
You will want a paid subscription for superior options
On the daybreak of the Home windows 10 period, I wrote “Windows 10 subscriptions aren’t happening. Here’s why”. That prediction has stood up for almost 10 years, however I believe Microsoft has lastly laid the groundwork to start out charging a month-to-month subscription price for Home windows.
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That does not imply that the standard Home windows enterprise mannequin goes away. I consider the overwhelming majority of PC customers will nonetheless purchase Home windows preinstalled on a brand new PC, with the price included within the value of the {hardware}. As a substitute of calling that in-built OS Home windows Dwelling Version, let’s name it Home windows Core. (Microsoft has been engaged on varied iterations of this concept for years — Home windows OneCore, Home windows CoreOS, and Home windows Lite, for instance.) In the event you’re pleased with that baseline characteristic set, you possibly can hold utilizing it. Like a timeshare salesman, Microsoft will annoy you with cross-sells, upsells, and shameless promotions for providers like OneDrive, Microsoft 365, and Xbox Reside. Simply hold saying no.
However I can’t be shocked to see the Professional version go away, to get replaced by a subscription-based package deal that provides you all of the Professional options for a month-to-month price as a substitute of a one-time license cost. If I have been a Microsoft product supervisor, I’d name it Microsoft 365 Professional, and I’d throw in a slew of credit for Copilot tokens to justify placing a month-to-month price ticket of $10 and even $20 on the package deal.
It is a time-tested mannequin: Enterprise admins have been paying for Microsoft 365 E3 and E5 licenses which can be designed precisely this manner. It is time for that mannequin to maneuver all the way down to the Professional editions.
It will likely be right here earlier than you are prepared.
If Home windows 12 follows the identical timeline as Home windows 11, here is the way it will play out:
- Growth of Home windows 11 will gradual in 2026 as improvement of Home windows 12 accelerates behind the scenes.
- The ultimate (minor) characteristic replace for Home windows 11 will arrive in 2027.
- Search for a preview launch of Home windows 12 in July 2027.
- Launch date? My cash is on October 2027.
What’s going to it’s referred to as?
The apparent selection is Home windows 12, however Microsoft has a historical past of upending the board with “game changer” releases, and every part the corporate has executed within the Satya Nadella period means that it expects this one to be a game-changer. Suppose Home windows 95, Home windows XP, and Home windows Vista.
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Given Microsoft’s present branding obsession with its AI options, it is a simple bounce: Home windows Copilot Version, anybody?
