Key Insights (AI-assisted):
Accelerating unit development alongside flat revenues alerts a structural shift towards ultra-low-cost mobile IoT, reshaping vendor economics and design decisions. The dominance of LTE Cat.1 bis and China/India quantity means international system makers will more and more align {hardware} roadmaps and certifications to those ecosystems. Rising DRAM constraints round sensible modules might gradual high-end industrial digitalization and favor easier architectures or non-cellular alternate options. On the similar time, early U.S. 5G RedCap migration foreshadows a extra regionally fragmented mobile IoT expertise panorama.
By Takeshi Niwa, Advertising and marketing Analyst at TSR (Techno Programs Analysis Co., Ltd).
China, India and LTE Cat.1 bis gas volumes, whereas pricing stress, DRAM constraints and 4G-to-5G transitions reshape the market outlook
Key Highlights:
- General robust cargo development: 19% YoY development in 2024, 23% in 2025
- China and India drive cargo development. NB-IoT spot-demand in Europe in 2025
- DRAM provide disruption affect high-end IoT modules (SOM/sensible module, 5G/4G purposes) in 2026-2027
- Finish-use expands not just for industrial/business, but in addition for consumer-type purposes
- Reforming provide chain to handle geopolitical issues
- Chinese language suppliers’ dominance, and consolidation in mobile IoT chip and module provide chain
- 4G to 5G (eRedCap) migration within the USA
- LTE Cat.1 bis is turning into basic to IoT connectivity globally (exterior USA)
General shipments and income
* Mobile IoT module: for Industrial and IoT, together with chip onboard/PCBA, however excluding automotive OEM telematics, cell broadband units, CPE and PC.
The mobile IoT module market is predicted to succeed in 544 million items and USD 3.93 billion in income in 2025. Shipments are forecasted to develop by 23% in 2025, pushed by a number of various factors: India market growth, new use case in China and Europe, restoration from stock correction within the western market. Nevertheless, speedy development in China and India, together with elevated adoption of LTE Cat.1 bis and NB-IoT, will proceed to stress ASPs, limiting general income development in 2024–2025.
In 2026, cargo development will gradual to eight.8%. India and China will stay key demand drivers, whereas European NB-IoT shipments will decline as penetration peaks. On the similar time, DRAM provide shortages and rising part prices will negatively have an effect on demand for 4G/5G and sensible modules.
The precise affect of DRAM shortages on the mobile IoT module market stays unsure. Nonetheless, any sensible system counting on legacy DDR3/DDR4 -especially Linux/Android-based programs or imaging applications- could face provide constraints and vital worth will increase by 2027.
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4G/5G sensible modules (SOM):
Merchandise akin to sensible handhelds, sensible POS, sensible cameras, drones, and robotics will likely be among the many most affected—significantly 4G sensible modules that use 2–3GB of LP-DDR4. -
4G/5G module-based units:
Industrial routers/gateways, high-end IP cameras, conventional industrial PCs, and industrial terminals are additionally anticipated to be impacted.
New use instances driving development
Regulatory-driven demand
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China: e-bike tracker (LTE Cat.1 bis):
New rules require GNSS monitoring for all new e-scooters to observe battery security. With 60–65 million e-scooters shipped yearly, this coverage will generate substantial LTE Cat.1 bis demand over the subsequent two to 3 years. -
Spain: Emergency site visitors gentle system (NB-IoT):
Spain now mandates an in-vehicle emergency gentle system utilizing GNSS and NB-IoT. This rule generated demand for about 30 million NB-IoT modules in 2025 and 10 million items in 2026. A number of European international locations are reviewing comparable rules, although no formal plans have been introduced.
Good dwelling purposes
- China’s ecosystem is quickly creating sensible dwelling units—akin to air conditioners, dwelling home equipment, and outside dwelling IP cameras utilizing LTE Cat.1 bis. Resulting from extraordinarily low module costs and knowledge tariffs in China, system makers are selecting LTE Cat.1 bis over Wi-Fi to make sure steady knowledge assortment.
Mobile expertise migration
LTE Cat.1 bis continues to increase globally, reaching 63% of whole mobile IoT module shipments in 2025. As legacy 2G/3G networks sundown throughout many areas, LTE Cat.1 bis is turning into the default connectivity normal for mass-market IoT units.
Mobile LPWA applied sciences account for twenty-four% of the market in 2025, however their share is predicted to say no step by step. LTE Cat.M shipments stagnated throughout 2024–2025 because of oversupply however are set to recuperate from the second half of 2025, with roughly 15% cargo development projected for 2026. NB-IoT has matured and begun to contract in China, whereas seeing a short lived enhance in Europe throughout 2025–2026 pushed by Spain’s emergency-light regulation.
5G stays area of interest in mobile IoT market, representing simply 0.4% of whole shipments. Broader adoption of 5G RedCap and eRedCap is predicted in 2027–2028, supported by (1) U.S. operators’ transition plans towards all-5G networks and (2) the arrival of low-cost Chinese language 5G RedCap chipsets.
4G to 5G migration
AT&T and T-Cell US plan to part out 4G companies and utterly migrate to 5G networks. AT&T is taking essentially the most aggressive strategy, halting new 4G system and module certifications by 2025. T-Cell is predicted to comply with throughout the subsequent two to 3 years. These community roadmaps make the U.S. market the earliest adopter of 5G RedCap and eRedCap modules. However, no different international locations or operators have concrete plans to sundown 4G networks but.
Lengthy-life IoT units—akin to sensible metering and automotive telematics—are anticipated to be among the many first to transition to 5G-based (or 6G-IoT, is dependent upon the timing) connectivity.
Mobile chipset and module suppliers
As low-end applied sciences dominate the mobile IoT market, Chinese language distributors maintain an amazing lead—round 90% share within the module market and 85% within the mobile chipset market.
Mobile module suppliers
Within the module phase, China Cell IoT, SunSea, and Lierda expanded their share in 2025. China Cell IoT and Lierda gained home share via aggressive low-cost methods, whereas SunSea elevated NB-IoT shipments in Europe. Intense worth competitors continues to drive consolidation in China, prompting strategic shifts amongst many suppliers. Corporations akin to Quectel, Fibocom, SunSea, Lierda, MeiG, Neoway, and MobileTek are more and more specializing in extra worthwhile abroad markets or diversifying into adjoining companies akin to PCBA/ODM or IoT cloud platforms.
Non-Chinese language module distributors noticed a rebound in 2025 as stock difficulty eased. Regardless of the robust momentum of Chinese language suppliers, non-China distributors are anticipated to keep up small, however secure place in segments associated to infrastructure, nationwide safety, and government-relation companies in Western markets.
To handle the geopolitical difficulty, main Chinese language module makers have established various company buildings—Wi-fi Mobility, Eagle Electronics, and Rolling Wi-fi—to keep up entry to Western market.
India has seen new native gamers within the mobile module market just lately, pushed by geopolitics and a rising block-economy. Amongst them, Cavli Wi-fi has emerged as the most important native provider with roughly 10% share in India.
Mobile IoT chipset suppliers
The highest 5 chipset suppliers—ASR, Eigencomm, Xinyi, UNISOC, and Qualcomm—held a mixed 92% share. Chinese language suppliers keep a powerful lead in low-end segments akin to LTE Cat.1 bis, NB-IoT, and 5G RedCap, however have restricted presence in high-end 5G eMBB. There aren’t any Chinese language suppliers in LTE Cat.M, which the market is concentrated in Western market.
In 2025, ASR, Eigencomm and Xinyi gained market share respectively, whereas Qualcomm and UNISOC skilled decline. In 2026, HiSilicon is predicted to develop quickly, taking share from Eigencomm and ASR.
In 5G RedCap chipset phase, HiSilicon holds an early lead. Nevertheless, Eigencomm, ASR, and probably a number of Chinese language start-ups might acquire share after 2027 with introduction of low-cost 5G RedCap chipset.
