# The Urgent Need for Quantum-Resistant Cryptography: A Credentials-First Approach
Today’s encrypted data, including critical credentials, may no longer remain secure in the coming years. While quantum computers capable of breaking existing encryption don’t exist yet, the pace of advancement in quantum hardware is accelerating, and organizations must prepare now to protect their most sensitive assets.
## Understanding the Quantum Threat
Public-key cryptography — the backbone of trust for virtually every digital interaction — faces an existential threat from quantum computing. Although current machines cannot break elliptic curve cryptography or RSA, quantum technology is progressing rapidly and will inevitably reshape how organizations safeguard their data. Attackers are already capturing ciphertext and credentials today, banking on the prospect of future quantum capabilities to unlock them later.
## How Soon Could Arrive?
The 2025 Quantum Threat Timeline report, published by The Global Risk Institute, indicates a significant consensus among surveyed security experts: the majority consider it likely that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will arrive within the next 15 years. This concern isn’t new — in 1994, Peter Shor demonstrated that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could efficiently factor large prime numbers and compute discrete logarithms, theoretically enabling it to break the foundations of modern public-key cryptography.
Importantly, Shor’s algorithm poses no meaningful threat to symmetric encryption methods like AES-256 or modern hashing algorithms. The real vulnerability lies in public-key cryptography, which is what two systems use to establish trust and agree on the session keys that protect data. If quantum computers compromise this step, attackers can unlock the data and credentials resting behind it.
## “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” Is Happening Today
What makes the quantum threat so pressing is the well-known “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” strategy. Relying on future quantum decryption capabilities means any intercepted and stored data today should already be considered exposed, as it can be retroactively decrypted when quantum technology becomes available.
## Q-Day and Government Deadlines
Government agencies around the globe are setting formal deadlines — referred to as “Q-day” — by which cryptography must be upgraded. The NSA’s Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) will require new national security systems to meet quantum-resistant standards by 2027, with full compliance targeted by 2035. Similarly, NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) has indicated its intention to deprecate certain algorithms (notably RSA-2048 and ECC P-256) after 2030 and fully disallow them by 2035.
These timelines may seem generous, but experts warn that organizational migrations typically require 5 to 15 years of planning, assessment, and implementation, underscoring the need to begin preparations as soon as possible.
## Why Credentials Are at Greatest Risk
Not all data carries equal urgency. Some secrets, like session tokens, may have confidentiality lifetimes measured in months. Credentials, however, can persist for years, especially in the growing population of Non-Human Identities (NHIs) — such as service accounts, API keys, and machine credentials — that are rarely rotated, often go untracked, and are unlikely to have been inventoried for their cryptographic exposure. This makes them prime candidates for “harvesting” by attackers.
## A Credentials-First Quantum Migration Strategy
Given the magnitude of credential-based risk, organizations should adopt a credentials-first approach to post-quantum migration. Key actions include:
**Inventory Existing Cryptography** — Identify systems that hold or broker secrets (password manager, secrets vaults, Privileged Access Management platforms). This step can help uncover forgotten service accounts and legacy integrations that have long gone unmonitored.
**Prioritize Risk Over Size** — Focus on the data that requires protection for the longest periods, particularly credentials used to access critical systems, rather than the largest volumes of data.
**Adopt Hybrid Cryptography** — Implement hybrid approaches that marry classical algorithms with quantum-resistant innovations. This provides a dual layer of defense while allowing organizations to transition gradually.
**Build for Crypto-Agility** — Design systems with the flexibility to swap algorithms without major re-engineering, ensuring that future migrations — whether prompted by further cryptographic advancements or regulatory shifts — can be executed swiftly and globally.
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**Source:** Courtesy of The Hacker News, “Credential Exposure and the Harvest Now, Decrypt Later Threat Model,” originally published June 29, 2026. [Read the full article here](https://thehackernews.com/2026/06/credential-exposure-and-harvest-now.html).
