Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off the new week on a strong note, with the $80,000 support level holding firm after a turbulent weekly close.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin retains its upward momentum potential, with one trader eyeing $85,000 in the near term.
- Many analysts also predict continued consolidation as BTC/USD navigates CME futures gaps and hunts for liquidity.
- The ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to trigger sudden market swings across cryptocurrencies and risk assets.
- Strong buyer interest in BTC supports forecasts of a sustained long-term uptrend.
- Two key Bitcoin price indicators are approaching their first “golden cross” signal in nearly three years.
Fresh BTC price targets point to $85,000
Bitcoin experienced its typical end-of-week price swings driven by geopolitical events, briefly climbing above $82,000.
According to TradingView data, the rally was short-lived, with BTC/USD swiftly retreating back toward the $80,000 level.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The outcome was a liquidity sweep that wiped out both long and short BTC positions on exchange order books. CoinGlass data shows that total crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours exceeded $400 million.
Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
“The Liquidation Heatmap on $BTC is currently looking STACKED with liquidity,” X trading account Cryptic Trades noted in a post just before the volatility struck.
“Both sides are loaded with liquidity, which is why I think market makers will flush out both sides before a larger directional move emerges from this range.”
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BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe echoed the optimistic outlook, noting that the “trend remains upward.”
“The 21-MA sits below the current price; momentum is still strong, and there’s no breakdown of the higher-high, higher-low pattern at all,” he shared with X followers on Monday.
“There’s no reason to think we’re losing steam anytime soon.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Bitcoin lacks futures “trigger” to break consolidation
Some market watchers believe the conditions aren’t yet in place for a decisive BTC price breakout.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is among them, highlighting nearby “gaps” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.
These gaps, which form when BTC/USD experiences weekend volatility, often act as short-term BTC price magnets.
“Bitcoin has reached its CME Gap (red). BTC is holding the bottom of it as support but getting rejected from the top,” Rekt Capital explained to X followers while reviewing the weekly futures chart.
“Price needs to Weekly Close above the top of this zone if it wants to rally higher. Until that trigger is in -> consolidation.”
CME Bitcoin futures one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out additional gaps around the spot price.
“We now have a few gaps left nearby: $78K, $80.3K & $84K,” he noted, with the highest gap capping recent local highs.
CME Bitcoin futures one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Meanwhile, Cryptic Trades argued that the combination of declining open interest and rising price should produce similar range-bound trading conditions for the time being.
“Because of this, I believe the most likely short-term outcome remains further consolidation, with both longs and shorts getting flushed before the market makes a larger directional move out of this range,” it concluded.
CPI leads key inflation week for Fed
The US-Iran war continues to be the main driver of sudden volatility for crypto and risk assets this week.
Bitcoin’s weekly close was marked by knee-jerk reactions as markets digested the latest developments in peace negotiations.
After trading terms back and forth — which had given markets reason for optimism last week — US President Donald Trump said he did not “like” Iran’s latest proposals.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump
He described the terms as “completely unacceptable.”
Source: Truth Social
As a result, WTI crude oil surged back above $100, while BTC/USD briefly climbed to nearly $82,500 before surrendering all of its gains.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Markets are once again discounting the likelihood of US-Iran peace negotiations,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a post on X.
Oil prices will stay in focus as fresh US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are published. As Cointelegraph reported, this inflation measure is especially reactive to shifts in the oil market.
The April Producer Price Index (PPI) report is scheduled to follow on Wednesday.
Source: Cointelegraph/X
In his commentary, investment manager Peter Tarr pointed out what the data could mean for Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve.
“Rising oil prices will be reflected in the impact reports. A crucial report for the Warsh-led Fed and the markets,” he posted on X.
Trump stated last month that he “would” be let down if Warsh did not lower interest rates at the Fed’s June meeting. However, the most recent figures from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicate that markets assign only a 4.2% probability to that scenario.
Fed target-rate probabilities for June 17 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Although this could pose a challenge for crypto, traders believe that the CPI outcome itself is already “factored into” BTC price movements.
Analysis points to a “sustainable uptrend” for Bitcoin
The most recent Bitcoin analysis continues to express optimism that a “lasting” market recovery is on the horizon.
In one of its QuickTake blog posts on Sunday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted favorable shifts in exchange-trader dynamics.
“Examining the $BTC Spot Taker CVD (90-day) chart on CryptoQuant, we’re observing a notable transformation in capital flow patterns,” contributor Researcher Rei summarized.
Rei referred to
Data on cumulative volume delta (CVD), which tracks the net difference between buying and selling volumes at specific price levels over time, provides key insights.
“After a period of neutral accumulation, the indicator has shifted to Green. This signals that Buyers are no longer placing Limit Orders at lower prices but are instead aggressively purchasing available liquidity through Market Buy orders,” he explained.
The figures suggest that major investors have transitioned from a speculative approach to a long-term holding strategy, while broader economic conditions are favorable for renewed capital inflows into the crypto market.
Rei characterized Bitcoin as a “premier growth asset.”
“Genuine demand has taken the lead,” he added.
“When bulls are prepared to pay a premium to acquire $BTC, a lasting upward trend typically ensues.”
Bitcoin spot taker CVD (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Onchain metrics prepare rare golden cross
Additional positive signals emerge from two other BTC price indicators that are poised to form their first “golden cross” since mid-2023.
Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands push key breakout as creator acts on positive signal
One of these is Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s total market capitalization to the average price at which all coins last changed hands, known as the “realized cap.”
Recently, the MVRV ratio has recovered from recent lows to reach some of its highest levels in 2026.
“This indicator shows a notable improvement in Bitcoin’s market valuation compared to its realized value, indicating that the market has started to recover significant momentum after a phase of decline and adjustment in the early months of the year,” CryptoQuant noted last week.
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
Currently, MVRV is approaching a crossover with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time in nearly three years. Historical data indicates that previous golden crosses have been followed by rapid BTC price increases.
“This signal serves as a classic trend reversal indicator and is considered bullish,” CryptoQuant contributor CW8900 stated on Sunday.
BTC/USD chart with MVRV data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
