Bitcoin enters the ultimate week of February on fragile footing, with macro forces (US financial occasions) as soon as once more dictating short-term path.
After final week’s combined alerts, together with moderating PCE inflation, resilient jobless claims at 206,000, and cautious FOMC minutes, markets stay undecided on the tempo of charge cuts forward of the March 17–18 Federal Reserve assembly.
4 US Financial Occasions That Merchants Are Watching Carefully
With charge expectations finely balanced, this week’s financial calendar might inject recent volatility into crypto markets.
Fed Officers Take the Stage
A crowded slate of Federal Reserve speeches runs from Monday via Wednesday, that includes Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook dinner, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and others.
With markets at present pricing in two to 3 cuts in 2026, any deviation in tone might rapidly shift charge expectations.
Traditionally, Waller and Bostic have leaned hawkish, emphasizing vigilance in opposition to inflation and knowledge dependence.
In the event that they reiterate considerations about “last-mile” disinflation or sign endurance on cuts, Treasury yields might rise alongside the US greenback. Such an final result might stress Bitcoin and doubtlessly push it decrease.
Conversely, dovish commentary highlighting slowing progress or labor softening might weaken the greenback and spark a aid rally in danger belongings.
Clustered appearances additionally enhance the danger of intraday swings, significantly if messaging lacks cohesion. For Bitcoin merchants, tone, not coverage motion, often is the key volatility set off this week.
Client Confidence
The Convention Board’s February Client Confidence Index follows January’s weak 84.5 studying, properly under expectations and traditionally per recessionary alerts.
February is projected to enhance modestly to 87.5, although sentiment stays subdued amid elevated residing prices and protracted inflation.
Final week’s PCE knowledge confirmed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, with core at 3.0%, reflecting lingering value pressures.
A stronger-than-expected confidence print, significantly above 90, would reinforce a resilient client narrative and strengthen the “no-landing” thesis.
That might cut back near-term charge minimize expectations, carry the greenback, and weigh modestly on Bitcoin.
Alternatively, a draw back shock under 85 would spotlight financial fragility. That final result would doubtless enhance rate-cut odds, that are at present elevated for March, and supply tailwinds for BTC.
Traditionally, confidence surprises have triggered 1–2% strikes in Bitcoin, significantly when aligned with broader macro developments.
Preliminary Jobless Claims
In the meantime, preliminary jobless claims stay one of many timeliest indicators of the labor market. Final week’s drop to 206,000 shocked to the draw back, reinforcing a good employment backdrop that has stored the Fed cautious about easing prematurely. Consensus now expects 215,000.
If claims fall under 210,000, it will sign ongoing labor energy and doubtlessly embolden hawkish Fed voices.
That situation might carry yields and modestly stress Bitcoin. Robust employment knowledge tends to delay charge minimize expectations, decreasing liquidity assist for danger belongings.
Conversely, a spike above 225,000 would increase considerations about labor cooling, significantly if paired with softer enterprise surveys.
Such a improvement might gasoline recession fears and enhance the likelihood of charge cuts—supportive for Bitcoin as merchants anticipate simpler monetary circumstances.
Although weekly claims sometimes generate 0.5–1.5% BTC volatility, the response might be amplified if the info contrasts sharply with earlier Fed commentary.
PPI (Producer Value Index)
January’s PPI (Producer Value Index) will shut out the week, with headline and core readings anticipated round 3.0% year-over-year.
Following final week’s PCE launch, PPI provides upstream perception into inflationary pressures earlier than they attain customers.
A warmer-than-expected core studying above 3.2% would doubtless reignite inflation considerations and diminish charge minimize bets. That situation might mirror post-PCE weak point seen not too long ago, pressuring Bitcoin by strengthening the greenback and lifting actual yields.
Nonetheless, a cooler print under 2.8% would reinforce disinflation momentum. Markets would doubtless value in additional aggressive easing, weakening the USD, and doubtlessly pushing Bitcoin towards $70,000.
As a month-end launch, PPI typically solidifies weekly developments. Mixed with jobless claims, it might produce 2–3% Bitcoin swings if expectations are materially challenged.
With Bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq and the US greenback close to multi-month highs, macro stays the dominant narrative.
If this week’s knowledge skews dovish, BTC might rally 3–5%. A unified hawkish tone, nonetheless, might set off a pullback of comparable magnitude. Liquidity expectations, not crypto fundamentals, stay in management.
